Not peak oil - Oilout
An essay
Oilout - a new word, coined here maybe. Abbreviation – OO. It refers to a future date, as yet undetremined, perhaps not all that far off. We ordinary folk are not really concerned with when their production peaks. What concerns us is when we can't get any petrol or diesel, for love or money. Or can't afford any, which will come sooner. For some of us, it already has.
Oil is a mined resouce. Sure, there is a production decay curve once past the peak, for wells, fields and oil-producing countries. But at the end of that, production ceases, as with any mine. All argument to the contrary is merely economists' sophistry.
The question is, how much have the Saudis in reserve? I am not an oil geologist, so I have no inside information, and I would not dream of suggesting they are lying in order to up their share of OPEC's quota system, or to avoid social unrest at home. After all, Saudi Arabia is a democratic country with stringent and rigorously enforced freedom of information laws, that not even an oil minister, with his nation's best interests at heart, would dare to flout.
Oil demand cannot outstrip supply, as there are no already-refined oil mountains to draw from. So, as the purchasing power and car and truck fleets of China and India grow, those countries will get more of what oil there is, before countries less able to pay and with markets less valuable to the oil companies, or with fewer strike aircraft and naval vessels.
Bad news for those of us who live in wesern Uganda or similar spots. If your nation is not in the upper bully-boy class, best start breeding donkeys now. Just be kind to them, as they are sensitive souls and like their rest, water and carrots. I joke not. When I was a kid in South Africa, my Mum would always point out the donkey carts, saying they would soon all be gone. Africa has plenty, now. Life for them is a bit better, as they mostly pull vehicles with old rubber car tyres, now, not steel rims.
World Oil Reserves
1,317,447 billion barrels of oil as December, 2006 (Source: Oil and Gas JournaL, December 18, 2006. PennWell Corporation).
World Oil Production
About 81 billion barrels a day. That times 365 gives roughly 30 billon barrels a year.
Oilout
Divide reserves by production, pretty simple.
That gives 40 years to oilout. Fish, my three-legged dingodog pal, is not alarmed as he is already 14 and sees it as someone else's problem. The donkeys, Burke and Wills, keep their ages to themselves, and are saying nothing.
This assumes both no new reserves and steady production, both unlikely. But, the chances if finding a new field to replace the Saudi's ones, are not that good. The prize is huge for the oil companies and oil geologists and geophysicists are not all fools. They have been drilling a lot of dud wells of late, and those are not cheap. I have lost track, but drilling onshore wells must be costing over $100 per foot now, as it was already costing $74.23 per foot drilled in 1997. An 8,000 foot well is not uncommon, so one of those would be an $800,000 dollar investment.
World oil production may have peaked in 2006, too early to tell.
Suggestions.
Walk or ride a bike when possible.
Get a smaller car, if you have or need a car, electric if possible, or perhaps liquid gas driven.
Move closer to your work, or the beach, or wherever you go most.
Move to a farm and help grow food.
Stop streaking across the sky in huge aluminium cans. It is posey, dangerous and noisy anyway. If you need a holiday, sail there, or just canoe for a week or two on nearby water and never mind Antarctica. The penguins will appreciate the peace and quiet. You will not forget the trip, either.
Travel by internet.
And, for a last word by our sponsor:
Walk the roads and tracks and plant public food trees.
Public domain. Use to suit.
Good luck, one and all. We need to pull together to get past this one.
Peter Ravenscroft.
Closeburn, Queensland, Australia.
